I haven't been able to get rid of the discomfort with the new coronavirus "turbulence" that is about to enter its second year. In other words, as I once wrote in this blog, I couldn't help but wonder, "Is it such a fuss?" One New Year's card said, "Every time I see the news, the announcer is happy to tell me the number of infected people is increasing every day as if something world record was set. I'm tired of it." January 3rd. The sports park near my home was crowded with parents and children playing various games like never before. People have already seen the "lie" of the "stay home" of the government and local governments. Government officials themselves have publicized that "most of the symptoms caused by COVID-19 are mild to moderate and will recover without special treatment." There comes a new question. "What is the reason for the government to exaggerate the situation?"
■ "It can be treated like influenza"
First of all, I will quote the remarks of Hideaki Karaki, Professor Emeritus of the University of Tokyo (Veterinary Pharmacology) who clearly challenges this "turbulence".
"The new corona measures should be drastically reviewed. There are many problems with the new coronavirus countermeasures. In fact, from an early stage, it was known that the infectivity and severity of the new corona was not much different from that of influenza. In Japan, the number of infected people and deaths is extremely small compared to Europe and the United States, and strict measures like those in Europe and the United States are unnecessary. Nevertheless, it has been classified as having a high risk of being equivalent to "Class 2" under the Infectious Diseases Control Law.
Treatment of high-risk infectious diseases that have caused harmful effects It was the government's expert meeting that played a major role in deciding measures and providing information to the public. Officials called on TV every day to prevent "three cs" and reduce contact by 80%, and warned that 400,000 people would die if left untouched, fueling fear with virtual numbers and demanding a state of emergency. .. NHK also spread the fear by reporting the number of infected people on a daily basis. The people were forced to cooperate in excessive measures such as refraining from going out and refraining from doing business, and many harmful effects such as prejudice, discrimination, and the emergence of private "self-restraint police" were caused by fear, and the economy was seriously damaged. ..
After that, the government lifted the state of emergency, which has a large negative impact, but the expert council (now a subcommittee) called for new self-restraint with the medical association, calling for a new refrain from medical collapse, and the travel industry and the restaurant industry The GoTo project to save the day was also suspended in the name of infection prevention. In the first place, the reason why medical collapse occurs in Japan, which has the largest number of beds per capita in the world, is that all infected people, including mild and asymptomatic, account for 80% of infected people at a small number of priority medical institutions for type 2 infectious diseases.
This is because he was hospitalized. Even so, the beds of priority medical institutions are more than half vacant nationwide, but only certain priority medical institutions in areas where the number of infected people has increased rapidly will be in a state of medical collapse. Local crises can be prevented with the cooperation of the whole, but the government, subcommittees, and medical associations have abandoned their efforts to solve the problem and continue to demand the self-restraint of the people to solve it. The damage of the second kind treatment extends to the public health center, and it is overwhelmed by the investigation of the infection route and the selection of the hospitalization destination of the infected person, which makes normal work difficult.
It's okay to deal with influenza
Class 2 treatment does not match the actual situation of the new corona, and its harmful effects are extremely large. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced at a press conference in August that he would change to the same class 5 treatment as influenza, and the media began to explain classes 2 and 5. This can eliminate many medical, social and economic damages, and the enormous cost of treating Class 2 can be focused on preventing infection and saving lives for high-risk individuals, resulting in much more lifesaving. Expected.
However, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has decided to extend the second-class treatment, which expires in January 2021, by one year. If so, its operation should be greatly flexible to eliminate its shortcomings and reduce the man-made disasters that cause natural disasters. " Regarding the 2nd class (infectious disease) and 5th class pointed out by Mr. Karaki above, the article dated November 14, 2020 of Daily Shincho explained as follows, and reinforces his claim.
"The government enforced a government ordinance designating the new corona as a" designated infectious disease "in February 2020. The Infectious Diseases Control Law classifies infectious diseases into categories 1 to 5 in descending order of risk, and the reason why the new corona was initially classified as "equivalent to category 2" is because there were many unknown parts. In addition, with the subsequent revision of the Cabinet Order, "recommendation for hospitalization for asymptomatic persons" and "request for refraining from going out to persons suspected of being infected" were added one after another, and it became possible to take "class 1" or higher measures. .. By the way, Ebola and plague are defined as Class 1. Class 2 is tuberculosis, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), Class 3 is cholera and dysentery, and Class 4 is rabies and malaria. Seasonal influenza is defined as the bottom five. "
■ Reason for not lowering to class 5
There was a statement within the government that allowed the reduction to class 5. Former Prime Minister Abe said at a "resignation press conference" on August 28, last year, "(About the treatment of corona, which has been regarded as equivalent to class 2), based on the knowledge so far, we will review the operation including the revision of the Cabinet Order." Told. However, after that, there was no expression such as "lowering to class 5" in the content of the "operation review" issued by the Suga administration, which was born by proclaiming the policy succession of the Abe administration.
The above article by Weekly Shincho explains to a prominent Japanese international political scientist why the Suga administration did not lower it to class 5. "The new administration is afraid that the approval rating will drop because it is criticized as 'underestimating the new corona' and 'underestimating the threat of the new corona', so I do not want to bother to stimulate public opinion in that respect. "I think." "From the" power theory "of what to do, I think that the social alert level should be lowered by appropriately arranging the treatment of the new corona equivalent to the 2nd to 5th categories. "
■ Incite hatred in China
The politics of the corona turmoil is evident in the media that fuel China's hatred. A typical example is the Sankei column (Mr. Ryusho Kadota) dated January 3, "[Speaking to the newspaper] Will you still continue to be on the side of China?"
"In 2020, many lives and societies have changed due to the corona epidemic. The greatest tragedy after the war, which caused unimaginable infections and deaths, has entered its second year. The virus from China reminded the world of the weight of life, but at the same time, the appearance of China, which challenges the international order by changing the status quo by force and tramples (crushes) human rights, is also highlighted. 2021 will be a year in which we must think and act on how to protect ourselves from this troublesome neighbor. However, there are newspapers that are a barrier to that. No, it is a newspaper that continues to report "for China" rather than a wall. In September last year, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he would consider measures that exceed the interception capability so far and reach a conclusion by the end of the year in order to prevent enemy missile attacks as a new security policy. In response to this, on December 18, the Cabinet decided to develop a "stand-off missile" that can be dealt with from outside the enemy's attack zone. In addition, as an alternative to Aegis Ashore, which has abandoned deployment, a plan to build two new Aegis ships under the name of "Aegis system-equipped ship" has been revealed. It is a defensive measure with China in mind, even if it is not mentioned. It is a decision that is too natural to increase deterrence. However, the commentary that benefits China appeared immediately. In an editorial dated December 19, the familiar Asahi wrote, <The examination of alternatives to the collapsed land-based Aegis and the ability to attack enemy bases is a "negative legacy" of the former Abe administration. He wrote, "We should break up once and for all." Every day, it could lead to a review of the division of roles that Japan has used as a "shield" for defense and the United States as a "spear" for striking power under the Japan-US Security Treaty. It is not permissible to destroy the exclusive defense and alter it> (editorial dated 20th). "
Not to mention Mr. Karaki's claim, at least as far as Japan is concerned, "2020 has changed many lives and societies due to the corona disaster. The greatest tragedy after the war, which caused unimaginable infections and deaths, is two years. "I rushed into my eyes." Is too exaggerated. This is probably because it was necessary as an introduction to launch an attack on China, saying that "a virus derived from China reminded the world of the weight of life."
According to a summary by Johns Hopkins University, as of January 4, 1,839,622 people were killed by the new coronavirus, of which 350,598 were in the United States. Meanwhile, according to Chinese officials, the death toll in China has not increased much from the revised value of 4632 as of April 17, last year. The damage in Europe and the United States can be said to be extremely serious, but the plague, which has halved the population, the epidemic of smallpox, and the devastation of World War I and World War II, which killed tens of millions of people. I don't understand how to write it as if to compare it with.
■ Pointed out by Mr. Itsuo Kohama
I quote the first half of Mr. Obama's "Corona Madness Finally Abuses" (https://38news.jp/economy/17279). It seems to be an appropriate view with concrete numbers. "It's been almost 10 months since the Japanese suffered from corona obsessive-compulsive disorder. Thanks to that, the economy and culture are chilling. It's time to crawl out of this antlion-like ridiculous suicide. Isn't it? In the first place, the epidemic of the new corona is not an epidemic of epidemics, but a social phenomenon of an epidemic of horror, and the epidemic was made up by multiple lies.
First lie: Identity between positive and infected The "number of infected people" announced by the media and local governments is the number of people who tested positive in the PCR test, not the number of people infected with corona. PCR tests also show positive reactions for viruses other than the new corona, such as mycoplasma. The local government and the media will never explain this mechanism.
Second lie: The spread of infection is due to an increase in the absolute number of infected people (actually positive people). This is a great way for the media and local governments to incite the people. Some governor, such as "Today, the number of infected people has exceeded 300 for the first time," calls for refraining from holding an "emergency press conference" just as my turn. However, these governors (not only the media reporters who let it flow as it is) have the intelligence of elementary school students and younger who cannot divide in the first place. No matter how much the absolute number of positive people increases, if the number of tests increases further, the positive rate will decrease. If yesterday's positives were 100 and the number of tests was 2000, the positive rate would be 5%, but even if today's positives increase to 200, if the number of tests at that time is 5000, the positive rate will decrease to 4%. Right. To threaten the public, local governments and the media only publish absolute numbers and never give a positive rate that indicates whether the infection has spread. In other words, it does not show the denominator. As we'll see later, this is easy to find if you have the right resources.
Third lie: PCR test tells you whether you are infected or not As mentioned earlier, a positive PCR test does not necessarily mean that it is a new type of corona, but other than that, there is enough expertise to question the reliability of this test. It has been reported that the sensitivity of this test varies greatly depending on the site and type of sample, the number of days since infection or onset. Generally, the sensitivity decreases as the number of days passes. https://jeaweb.jp/covid/qa/index.html#:~:text=%E6%95%B0%E7%90%86%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83% AB% E3% 81% AE% E7% B5% 90% E6% 9E% 9C% E3% 80% 81% E6% 84% 9F% E6% 9F% 93,% E6% 84% 9F% E5% BA% A6 % E3% 81% AF62% EF% BC% 85% E3% 81% A7% E3% 81% 99% E3% 80% 82 So if you do multiple tests, what was positive becomes negative and vice versa. However, the local government and the media are not telling the truth and are touting as if this test is certain.
Fourth lie: The second wave is coming in the summer, and the third wave is about to come If the positive rate doesn't increase sharply, we can't say what wave has come. Calculated from the data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the positive rate in August, when the second wave was said to have arrived, is as follows compared to April. April peak time (April 10) 13.1% August peak time (August 7) 7.8% August 18th, 4.3% You can see that the second wave did not come. But what about these days? November 22nd, 3.6% In Tokyo and Hokkaido, which are noisy, if you calculate from the same data, November 23, Tokyo 6.7% November 23, Hokkaido 5.6% So, you can see that it is a little higher than the whole country, but even so, it is quite low compared to the peak time in April. https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR2S54N_qvGv4pvErqYep9pud9caVBH44VsTj9dv0q5nXk8iq4ZnOyHd6xw In any case, the coverage as if a big wave had hit is really exaggerated. Is it necessary to refrain from or atrophy with these numbers?
Fifth lie: New Corona causes horrific death Even so, it may be humanity to be anxious if you become seriously ill or die. However, the numbers above are just positive rates. It is well known that the positive rate is not equal to the infection rate, and that this infection causes little damage to children and adolescents. You sometimes drive old people with chronic illnesses to serious illness. Therefore, let's calculate the number of deaths from the same data as to how many of the positive people have died so far. The ratio of deaths to positives is as low as 1.5%, and the number of deaths to the number of tests is as low as 0.05%. In other words, only 5 people are dead for every 10,000 people inspected. Moreover, half of the five are in their 80s or older, and four are in their 70s or older. That's how much any illness will die.
Sixth lie: The new corona is more violent than other illnesses This is totally crap. Here is data showing the number of deaths by cause of death in 2019 per 100,000 population. https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/fuwaraizo/20200929-00199953/ Malignant neoplasm 304.2 Heart disease 167.9 Cerebrovascular disease 86.1 Pneumonia 77.2 Unexpected accident 31.7 Suicide 15.7 Liver disease 14.0 Tuberculosis 1.7 Senility 98.5 Compared to these figures, the death toll of the new Corona is currently 2000, so even if it reaches 2500 by the end of the year, it will be 1.98 per 100,000 population per year. A good match with tuberculosis. You can see how few. Also, I heard from people returning from England that Europeans are not as upset as Japanese people and they are all behaving coolly. In Sweden, it specializes in treating critically ill people, and Japanese doctors living in Sweden said that even medical personnel did not wear masks. The death toll in Western countries is around 800 out of 1 million, but this is also around 80 when compared to the table by cause of death per 100,000 population in Japan, which is not usually a problem. It's about the same as death. As mentioned above, I have pointed out the obsessive-compulsive disorder of the Japanese media and local governments that make a fuss about pandemics and pandemics. In the past, the 2020 Corona turmoil was just a stupid act of bankruptcy, out of business, unemployment and more suicides. I sincerely hope that this "illness" will not be carried over until next year.
Unfortunately, Mr. Obama's prayer was vain, and the turmoil was carried over to "2021". In the future, there is a great possibility that “cat and mouse” with vaccine development will continue due to the outbreak of mutant virus. Moreover, an emergency declaration will be issued for one month in Tokyo and the three prefectures of the Tokyo metropolitan area early in the new year.
By the way, in December, there were 30,000 new infections and more than 700 deaths every day in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in the former East Germany with limited political freedom, "preached the threat of the new coronavirus to the people with limited freedom" and was highly acclaimed internationally. At the beginning of January, the number of infected people was around 20,000 per day, and the death toll was 600-700. There is a view that the peak has been exceeded, but the situation is unpredictable.
"Germany is facing the greatest crisis since the Second World War due to the new Corona," Merkel said, and appealed to the public to take this seriously. It is no wonder to evaluate this as a "historic television speech." However, she is caught in the rhetoric that "the biggest crisis since the Second World War". I can agree with the sense of crisis. But the expression is over. The impression that it is a politician who is always conscious of elections cannot be canceled.
Under these circumstances, it is widely believed that economist Klaus Schwab, who presides over the World Economic Forum (WEF), is using the new corona turmoil in an attempt to reset capitalism in collaboration with Wall Street and Neocon. Neo-liberalism is not enough, and it is said that the ultra-rich and ruling class are trying to make it a social camp to secretly execute new strategies in order to oligopolize wealth. However, China is stimulating strong domestic market demand by minimizing corona damage, turning the economy into positive growth and returning to a stable growth trajectory.
The European Union (EU) also hurriedly agreed to conclude an investment agreement with China on December 30 before the inauguration of the new US administration, and it is a stepping stone to escape from the worsening business conditions where investment and exports to China are becoming more serious due to the corona disaster. I'm trying hard to make it. The corona wreck hastened the time when China's economic power surpassed that of the United States. In such a situation, it is impossible to completely reset the western-dominated world economy.
Moreover, even if a state of emergency is issued without force, no visible effect can be expected. Therefore, there is a view that the Suga-Abe administration is aiming to enforce a compulsory special measures law and finally amend the constitution to include an emergency clause in the new constitution.
However, as I have repeatedly pointed out in this blog, "constitutional amendment" including Article 9 is not allowed by Washington. Knowing that, the "constitutional amendment" is just camouflaging and exercising.
That's all I can say now. I haven't yet found the right answer to the question "Why is the government making a big noise about the situation?" At the beginning. At least regarding the response of the Japanese government ...